Intrinsically dynamic population models

Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs) depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals is equal to the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues) associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie) matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields IDMs when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27) and (30) provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth. 1Department of Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, 211 Oswald Tower, University Park PA 16802 USA. Tel. 814-865-8869. E-mail: [email protected] http://www.demographic-research.org 51 Schoen: Intrinsically dynamic population models